Alan Milburn’s NEET report is a “sobering” warning for youth unemployment
- 4 days ago
- 6 min read
Alan Milburn’s government-backed report on the rising number of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) has been described as "sobering" by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with Milburn laying out that this is "probably the most significant challenge facing our country."
Last week, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the latest figures of young people who are NEET. Between January and March 2026, this figure rose to 1,012,000 young people in the UK aged between 16 and 24, up from 957,000 in the period from October to December 2025.
In his interim report published on the same day as the ONS' latest figures, government adviser and former Health Secretary under Tony Blair, Alan Milburn warned that Britain risks a 25% rise in the number of young people who are NEET to 1.25 million by the early 2030s, without urgent government action to avoid a “lost generation”. His full findings and report will be published later this year.
The report also estimates that the total annual cost to the UK of youth inactivity is £125bn, which includes the £3.2bn direct cost of benefit spending on NEETs, £2.7bn a year in estimated “wellbeing impacts” on the affected young people and £200m a year on increased health spending.
The transition at 16 from school into further education, training or work is one of the most important moments in a young person’s life. When that transition works well, it can open up confidence, purpose, independence and opportunity. When it breaks down, the effects can be long lasting. Time spent out of education and employment can have a scarring effect on future outcomes, affecting not only earnings and career progression, but wellbeing, confidence and a young person’s sense of belonging in society.
That is why identifying the NEET risk factors at an earlier stage, as early as transition to primary school, is essential.
Young people do want to work, but they need opportunity and support
We need to recognise that stereotyping an entire generation of young people seems to have become an acceptable form of discrimination. In our experience, the narrative that young people are lacking ambition, motivation or resilience could not be further from the truth. A five-minute conversation with a group of young people is usually enough to demonstrate the opposite - our young people want to make significant contributions to society.
What young people are facing is not a lack of aspiration, but a lack of opportunity and support. There have been few times in history where entering the workforce will have been more difficult. Young people today are trying to enter adulthood after growing up through austerity, the pandemic, the cost-of-living crisis and a period of deep economic uncertainty.
For many, the job market is difficult to navigate. Entry-level opportunities are limited and the skills employers need are not always matched by the training available locally. At the same time, the rise of AI is creating new uncertainty about what the workforce will look like in the years ahead. Choosing what to study, where to train, or which career path to follow has rarely been more difficult than it is today.
The barriers facing young people are growing, not disappearing
A child born after 2008 will only have lived in a time of falling living standards and will have grown up surrounded by pessimistic media narratives about the future. This shapes how young people see the world, how they understand opportunity and how confident they feel about their own future.
The challenge is even sharper in communities where opportunity is not evenly distributed.
High-value educational routes and better-paid jobs are often concentrated in wealthier parts of the country, while the cost of relocating to access them has become harder for young people and families to manage. For those growing up in places where transport is poor, local training routes are limited, or employers are under pressure themselves, the barriers can stack up quickly.
To reduce NEET numbers, we must ask what is getting in young people’s way
Part of the answer lies in rebuilding the support around young people at the point of transition. Careers advice must be honest about the current working landscape, realistic about what is available locally and offer advice where relocation is desired.
In the past, national programmes such as Connexions provided a clearer safety net for young people moving from school into post-16 destinations, without being affiliated to local education providers. This initiative fell victim to austerity and support is now fragmented at best. The result is many young people navigating a complicated landscape of options without consistent, unbiased, evidence-based advice.
Young people need to know which sectors are growing, which skills are in demand and how different routes can lead to secure and meaningful work. That includes academic pathways, apprenticeships, technical education and direct skills training. It also means investing in the fundamentals that underpin almost every job: literacy, numeracy, communication, confidence and the ability to keep learning as the world changes.
Employers need support to create routes into work for young people
Employers also have a crucial role to play. We need to work with them to create routes into the workforce that recognise the potential of young people, rather than expecting them to arrive fully formed.
Good employers can make a huge difference by offering meaningful placements, mentoring, entry-level roles and support that helps young people sustain employment once they get there.
However, there also needs to be support and incentives for employers to create these opportunities. Rises in Employer National Insurance, minimum wage and the recent Employment Rights Act have made some employers, particularly small and medium-sized businesses, more risk averse. If we want more young people to make successful transitions into employment, employers need the confidence and capacity to invest in them.
Preventing young people becoming NEET starts long before they turn 16
Young people are shaped by the places they grow up in. Reducing the risk of young people becoming NEET is not something that begins at 16. It begins much earlier, through a child’s engagement in education, their health and wellbeing, their access to community support and the way schools, services, families and local organisations work together around them.
Educational attainment remains one of the strongest protective factors against the risk of becoming NEET. That is why our place-based partnerships focus on improving outcomes across whole communities, supporting schools, strengthening literacy and helping local systems work together more effectively. These efforts benefit all children and young people, not only those already identified as at risk.
At the same time, we know that some young people need more targeted support. A narrow focus on attainment can obscure the barriers that prevent the most vulnerable children and young people from engaging with education in the first place. That is why approaches such as engagement coaching are so important. They can help young people who are at greater risk to reconnect with education, training or employment, rebuild confidence and access the right support at the right time.
Local partnerships are key to tackling the NEET crisis
The Milburn report should prompt serious national action, but the solutions cannot be designed from Whitehall alone. They need to be built with communities, bringing together employers, schools, colleges, local authorities, voluntary organisations, families and young people themselves.
Every place is different. The opportunities available in Central Great Yarmouth will not be identical to those in the Liverpool City Region. Local partnerships understand the assets, barriers and relationships that shape young people’s lives.
Young people need clear pathways, trusted advice, strong basic skills, relevant training, supportive employers and joined-up local systems that do not let them fall through the gaps. They need adults who believe in their potential and institutions that are prepared to work together over the long term.
If we get this right, we can prevent a generation of lost potential and build a future in which every young person has the support, skills and confidence to succeed.
For more information on our education, employment and training programmes, visit: https://www.righttosucceed.org.uk/education-employment-training
